Authors: Taib, Adnan; Killick, Rebecca; Hussain, Kamran et al.
Source: In HPB November 2021 23(11):1732-1743
Background Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning.
Results A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions.
Conclusion Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.
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